I'm trying to get an accurate and in-deep opinion about the Mexican War on the Narco, so I've read lots of messages and comments to different related news.
What I've seen is that a political fight rages behind that war: while some blame President Calderon for having triggered that war, others blame PRI for having tolerated and even organised the drug trafficking during their 70 years in power.
So, is this really a war on Narco, or is it a covert political war? Is this just a Cartels war, or are we seeing a re-edition of the Colombian FARC war againts the govt. which involves some other countries in the region?
What should be more feared is the silent u.s drug cartels. They are those making the big profits. The mexicans are nothing more than delivery men and sometimes producers.
The money is laundered in the u.s and drugs are now cool and acceptable, we could be talking about a trillion dollar market here.
I don't see the drug war being won in mexico without U.S help, and by that I mean legalization of marijuana and a complete overhaul of drug laws, which have become an industry in themselves with the DEA, judges and private prisons making money off drug users. I don't see this happening since the U.S is in a recession and will only become more corrupt. So eventually the drug cartels will by necessity become smarter and infiltrate the military and higher government. Right now the war is only between 'thugs' soon you'll be dealing with incredibly intelligent and organized leaders who will work in concert with the BOTH the u.s and mexican government. I'd say give it another 5 years to start to see this happening.
I may be new here but I have long been involved along certain parts of the border,on booth sides,and was always alarmed by the story's of growing Muslims community's through out Latin America including the border and Hugo Chavez,has Victor says he is interested in destabilizing Mexico and any where else where he thinks he can cause trouble for the U.S.[like Honduras].The current situation gives him opportunity,I may not know how big a threat he is but I do know he is active,he is openly associating with Hezbollah,he's using his Embassy in Mexico City for covert and overt activity.There is Hezbollah on the border but STRATFOR says I don't need to worry to much "Hezbollah, Radical but Rational".
I do feel the threat to Mexico and the rest of Latin America is intensified by our current administrations lack of experience [to put it mildly] in dealing with Latin American politics,and it is in or national interest.