Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

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B-
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Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

B-
Hello there BLB,,,,

I first want to say thanks for everything you do in providing up to the minute news on what's going on the world of the Narco Wars going on in Mexico.

I am writing you from Orlando Florida. I myself, have been involved in an incident where I was fortunate enough to walk away from it involving some members of a cartel group down in Cancun while on vacation. It may sound odd, but it was a different situation and no violence was involved. I would love to share that story with you another time.

That is when I become so involved to make sure that I read the news everyday from LA Times Mexico Drug War Reports. I would just read and read and would be horrified by what I was reading, seeing, and hearing on videos all over the Net.

I would always see some type of news about the Mexico's drug war at least once a week and would ask myself and friends, why in the world are we in Iraq, when we should be helping our fellow countrymen on our own borders.  Hey, I know, it's all politics and money. I know this. It just really makes me angry. I'm Mexican American myself.

Anyways, for the past week, All i have thought are about level headed and realistic solutions and ideas to just share with the BBL community. Just to see what they thought.

One idea that I thought of was this..... Please be open minded about this when I mention this.

I realize that corruption is at all levels of the Mexican Government, so this is why I dare mention this idea, I also realize that the President at this time would dare not ask the US for Assistance from the US to have American Soldiers on the Mexican territory.

What about looking into the services of a Privatized Elite Mercenary Company such as one as Executive Outcomes when it was in existence during the 90's in the Sierra Leone Wars in Africa.

I know that there was a lot of pro's and con's in that situation, but in Mexico's situation, could it really be any worse. With the technologies and military strategies of today and mix that with an professional Elite Mercenary Group like a Blackwater or something similar. That group made an impact, a historical one I might add. In a very short time as well.

I know that finances is an issue, but putting a group like this in all major cities well at least 7 to 10 of them and major border towns with mobile command centers, their own air support and ground support to do intelligence and choke them down and capture them and/or eliminate them.  I see them doing this for 3 months to 8 months, I feel that this could be a viable solution in disrupting and dismantling/crippling their operations in an efficient manner.

This war has been going on for years, it's not slowing down. The US, my countries politicians, are punks for not doing more that what we could, not should, but could. We didn't have to be in Iraq, but we are cause we could.

Here is a link showing what Executive Outcomes did while in combat there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYE1s7lDBYc

Anyways,
thanks for taking the time to read this and hopefully, you don't think I'm crazy, but you know, nothing else is really working, is it?

Thanks & God Bless
B-
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

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More pistoleros?   uuuhhhhgghh...       ....Pleeeease....
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

Zorro
In reply to this post by B-
Didn't Los Zetas used to be used by Mexico to fight the cartel violence until they turned to support just one cartel?  I believe they were even US trained.. so.. no.. adding more guns and military no matter whether they are "mercenaries" or straight military is not the answer.  The corruption at all levels of Mexican government needs to be rooted out and removed and THEN the stranglehold that the cartels have on the country needs massive UNCORRUPTED military force.

I would also say that allowing Mexican citizens to be armed for their own protection would make a tremendous amount of sense.  These thugs are taking advantage of an unarmed citizenry. Imagine the difference that could be made if EVERY Mexican citizen were allowed to be armed and allowed to protect themselves?
B-
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

B-
I agree 100% with letting the Mexican people arm themselves, let them take their country, cities, towns, villages back!!!!
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

surf city
In reply to this post by B-
To B-

Plausible and interesting and bottom line I am sending you kudos for intertaining a solution.

Most bloggers do not offer a solution, just bitch, criticize or play the blame game, guess I have to

include myself in that group!  JAJA you know gloom & doom but this is good and thoughtful.  and to the blogger stating Zetas were US trained to be elite police force for Mx and yes became the bad guys, but what this person is talking about is different and I think a worthy consideration.  Mercenaries are well paid and trained and are foreign citizens to the country they work in.

Are you from LA?  because of reading the Times I thought you may be a transplant.  I am a SoCal Mex

myself. If so  I wonder you thoughts about the cartel presence in LA and recruiting from M13...scary for sure

Paz
B-
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

B-
Hey Paz, Actually I'm originally from Oklahoma. Just one day, i wanted to read as much as I could bout the Narco Wars because of an incident that I was involved with Cartel members while vacationing in Cancun last year for my birthday, and that's where I started and yes, it's a very scary thing going on over there with the recruitment of MS-13.

Thanks for commenting on my idea, it's just that I know that it's really worked in the past, When in fact, it was a very disciplined and professional group of para-military forces.  

That youtube link is very interesting. I actually saw the whole documentary and the results were astonishing.

I mean it worked, it was expensive.  I mean lets face it, Mexico won't ask for US forces on their turf. It wont happen until an international incident involving a high level government official is harmed.

I am Mexican-American, but I'm "Americanized". We are not seeing bribes in everyday normal society. Mexico does. Bottom Line, they do.

So bring in a group such as the ones I've referenced above. Paid from the Country of Mexico, trust me, they aren't going to be taking bribes from some Cartel Members.

Anyways thanks for the kudos, stay in touch

B
Orlando Florida
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

GranX
In reply to this post by Zorro
How about rooting out the corruption from the US Government?
The very same that allows drugs to massively cross the best protected border of the world?
OJ
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

OJ
This post was updated on .
Proposal:
Offer a one-time amnesty to the narcos, allowing them to keep all of their money and exempting them from extradition to the US in exchange for them laying down their weapons and identifying themselves and their whereabouts. It should not be an unconditional amnesty. For example, the narcos should be required to abide by ALL applicable laws from the moment they accept the amnesty, including paying taxes on income, etc. A condition could also be that they not hold any government office for a set period of time, but that they otherwise be allowed to vote and participate in the election process like everybody else. Such a strategy helped pacify the country when the Revolucion seemed to be ending but there were still too many generales with small armies who posed a threat to new uprisings.

There are a number of arguments one can make for and against this idea. I can think of many either way, but it seems to me that there are more and stronger ones in favor of it.

What do you think? Has anybody proposed this before?
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

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This thread is kinda simplistic, I think. More guns really don't solve, or even enhance the debate.

My take is that this conflict is not your typical formulaic fight of political right vs. political left. Its not a typical battle between the "let them eat cakers" and those that advocate that "the government should do everything for me." Its not just a battle between the rich and the peasants; you know what I mean?

In those battles, the rich have an army suppressive of peons that have risen against them for their "piece of the pie."  In the US, a big part of that fight is about tax and about how much you and I will be forced to put into the tax pot; ...then we fight about what to do with the pot of cash. In "HOT" political "right vs left" fights there's usually a socially unbalanced equilibrium; no middle majority actively interacting between the left and right; there isn't a great majority that are "not too rich or not too poor."

So where is it different, here?

I detect a complicating factor to the above formula which contributes an interesting twist: an insatiable thirst for drugs in the US has provided the only economic opportunity for many Mexican's path to the middle class.    Basically, a significant economic element in the Mexican equilibrium between "left and right" is largely made up of a CRIMINAL ECONOMY that makes its money by feeding the US hunger for mood altering products (uh... can anybody find parallels with labor migration? He, he....you want it, we got it... DONE!!!  We're like "THE WORLD GREATEST SALES PEOPLE IN THE WORLD" [in the annoying Nationwide Insurance commercials]).

...so....

The fight here is not against the government, per se. The Narcos are not really seeking absolution from the government. They just want to keep their piece of the criminal economic pie; and increase it a little while their at it.

So how can the government negotiate (on society's behalf) with anyone on criminal terms?  The answer is, "Not Easily."    ...as it should be...       ...and it shows.

BUT, THAT'S WHAT'S GREAT ABOUT THIS SITUATION!!! (the power of the media on the public has really grown!!!) The only thing the government can do is continue to put pressure on them while other solutions continue to work their way through legislative bodies all around the country. Resources and leadership will continue to be demanded to improve the criminal justice system's effectiveness. And IT WILL improve; slowly but surely... Unfortunatly, this fight will continue, in the short term.

I am very optimistic of Mexico's future, though!!

All this is politics.
OJ
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

OJ
So you are rejecting the proposal of an amnesty on the basis of history? Now that's simplistic.

In the first place, it is not true that the Revolucion, once it ignited, was kept alive by class struggle or demands for indigenous rights. Once the bloodletting started, it got out of hand for everybody. Remember it had stalemated by the early-1910's. Lawlessness and chaos reigned. Survival and revenge had long trumped the principles and motivations that started it. Zapata had been killed in Morelos and Villa had been cornered in Chihuahua. The other caudillos that had been active elsewhere in the country had taken to simply protecting their turf. The conflagration would have roiled a lot longer had the Federal Govt, which was simply one of the several power centers vying for control of the country, not broadened its strategy to include conditional amnesty to the caudillos. I remember a story from my grandfather about how the local warlord had gathered his people, including him and his uncles, to announce "...que se iba ha amnisticiar...." The reward was better prospects for longevity, validation of all his possessions and peace for his followers. From then on his big fear was retribution from the relatives of the many people he had killed because they were not with him or had somehow cooperated with the either the changos or the Carranzistas. Indeed revenge killings were a common occurrence until that generation died off. But the strategy worked. It put out enough fires that the Federales could focus on where the greatest threats.  

In the second place, the war in Mexico today no longer has sides. Yes, the narcocapos have their core armies, but the culture of corruption and the desperation ordinary folks feel just to survive is what really predominates. I hear it from my many relatives throughout the country, north and south. The clearest fact today is that nobody is so strong that they can claim any major plaza in the country without a lot of costly, constant maintenance. Once your sicarios leave to go shape up another plaza, the plaza that is left behind falls apart. If you think about it, things are little easier to understand in Afghanistan, but even there Gen. Petreaus has to keep reminding his troops of the terrible calculation that innocent people caught in the middle have to make everyday. It's not that the local policemen in places like Santiago are more corrupt than the cartels' foot soldiers, it's only that you get to read about corrupt policemen while the effect of corruption in the cartels shows up simply as just another round of gangland executions. Nobody is winning, certainly not the Govt. Meanwhile the chaos is gaining on everybody. Extortionists and kidnappers run rampant under the guise of narcos. The narcos is now even becoming the sorry excuse why the husband came home late from work and why the soccer team can't win.

And, no, it is not going to stay this way indefinitely. As a Mexican, I too am totally opposed to negotiating with the narcos, that is, going back to the way it was before Calderon's declaration of war. But as time goes on, I find more and more good folks going the other way. As they put it, one thing is to stand on principle, another thing is to live in an environment where you and your loved ones are at high risk of becoming collateral damage by one side or another. Just like at the height of the Revolucion, time is running out for the current Govt to show the momentum is on its side. If things do not improve soon, the body politic is going to start screaming for appeasement. The idea is already firmly planted in the undercurrent of political dialogue. It was openly broached in Calderon's security summit a few weeks ago. Just like Obama, he knows that public support for the war is not as deep and broad as he needs to keep at it indefinitely.

Rambo is not going to save the day. Even if you could catch them, the chaos is not going to end with the elimination of the top capos. Drones and a greater presence from law enforcement in the US is only going to force corruption and violence across the border (there's lot's of documentation even on this blog indicating it is already upon us). It is going to take more than military and police tactics. It is going to take a broader, more complex strategy that targets the whole instead of the individuals.

I don't think the political climate in the country today is such that an amnesty proposal from Calderon will prosper. Like in the US, anything that can be called a softening of the goal of unconditional surrender of the enemy will only manipulated by the opposing party. I can already hear Rush holding forth on it. Any proposal that even mentions amnesty will have to come from the public itself. I have absolutely no doubt that such a proposal will eventually make the headlines. I would bet that 2011 will not have yet arrived before it happens. The only question is how. We should totally reject anything that looks like what Moctezuma did with the Spaniards, that is, offer the conquistadores gold so they would go home. This would be surrender, and what is worse it would be bargaining with people who cannot truly control their side of the conflict. I think people should help bring out in the open the idea of a conditional amnesty so the politicians can talk about it without fear of reprisal. Who knows, maybe it will bring on a rush of amnisticiados who will leave exposed only a few hard nuts to crack. The Govt can win that war.

Don't like the idea? Then tell us your solution?

GP
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

GP
Why would the Cartel leaders want amnesty and what would the sicarios that didn't get amnesty do?
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

Morelos
In reply to this post by ...
Definitivamente!
I agree with this posting and I also have faith that after the toughness of this was in Mexico the system
will be better prepared to be less corrupt!
OJ
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

OJ
In reply to this post by GP
Not all of the capos will want amnesty, and most sicarios will not be in a position to ask for it without their capo signing off. But that's not the point. Just as during the Revolucion the Federales only needed a critical mass of the caudillos to fall in place so it could focus on the few, so too does Govt today only needs a few capos to get out of the fight. This is partly how Villa was out-maneuvered and isolated in the Norte, himself later seeing no option but going into the amnesty program just to stay alive. So the Govt only needs only a few capos to seek amnesty for it to get the momentum it desperately needs right now to keep the Mexican public on its side in the war. Just imagine what it would mean in terms of the war if, say, Chapo and/or Mayelo said "that's it for us...we'll lay down our arms and cooperate with the Govt if they guarantee our $'s and let us retire to a big ranch with our own private security detail...." The narco structure in and around Tierra Blanca (Culiacan) would be disrupted for at least a window of time during which the Govt could work on consolidating its hold on that territory and turn the military toward the other cartles.  You see, what keeps the cartel, and every criminal organization together for that matter, is ORGANIZATION, and that takes time to build and get going in enough of an efficient fashion that it can hold its ground against the competition. As it is often said, Rome was not built in one day. Yes, no doubt other cartels may think they can swoop in and fill the void, but that would take a lot of ground work and put them as risk of overextending themselves, the big disadvantage from which the Govt is now fighting. Then as the replacement structure started coming up, the Govt would have a endless opportunities to infiltrate it and even mine it with inefficiencies.

So the strategy of an amnesty is really only a plan to divide and conquer. Of course, the capos and everybody else will know this, as the caudillos knew it during the Revolucion. But it will nonetheless put the Govt closer to the driver's seat than it is now, since everybody will also know that the first ones to take advantage of it would be most benefitted by the amnesty (i.e. better surrender terms, more orderly withdrawal of their people from the front lines, and the better chance of being accepted back into society. Those who waited until they were the last ones to seek amnesty risk annihilation, at very least a harder fight because his troops would be thinking all the time that soon they are going to be like the Prussians under Maximiliano, abandoned on the battle field.

My proposal may be full of holes. It may also be that it is not yet time in the war to think in these terms. But only by discussing it with others can it be a good proposal. So what do you think?
GP
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

GP
Definitly worth discussion. Sometimes solutions to problems come about from discussions started on an entirely different point . Other questions. Does the majority of the government, emphasis on majority, really want to win the drug war ? How many in government profit from the drug cartels? And the military? Is there any way to know the numbers for and against the cartels? How much fear is in the average Mexican citizen to make him indifferent to the war? In other words, keep quiet, stay out of it, ignore it as much as possible. Even support a government that accomadates the cartels as the PRI did in the past. These questions need answers before any solution can be formulated, if at all.
OJ
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Re: Question on possible options & solutions to end or curb cartel war?

OJ
Muy de acuerdo. Deben haber buenas respuestas a las interrogantes que planteas.

Por mi parte, yo no tengo ilusión de que el Gob este unido bajo una política u objetivo con respecto a la guerra. Se ve mucha, mucha división, intriga y contradicción dentro sus filas. Más veo la actuación de las instituciones federales, asi como el Congreso, los Pinos y etcetera, más veo una situación paralela a lo que predominaba en 1842. Como ya sabemos, no se mejoraron las cosas en aquel entonces, y los yanquis se llevaron todo lo que ellos querían. De pura suerte nos dejaron BCns, SON y CHIH.  Hoy día sería un milaro que se llegara mejorar la clase política a tiempo para evitar que los carteles no se lleven lo que ellos quieren. Sí, es muy gacho decirlo, pero esas son las cartas dadas. El tema es cómo mejor jugarlas, o sea cómo evadir la conquista narco a pesar de las fuertes debilidades en nuestras instituciones.


A mí parecer, la solución está en aceptar que en el corto plazo no se van ha limpiar ni el gobierno, ni el ejercito ni mucho menos los partidos. La guerra se va tener que pelear y ganar o resolver de alguna manera aun con la cruz en rasta.

Mienras tanto, el miedo y la incertidumbre prevalecerá. Para esto sí habrá equidad social, ya nadiepuede evadirlo. Como de me dijo un primo que le dijo inocentemente a un teniente encapuchado quien lo estaba cateando, ya no sabemos para donde hacernos porque igual nos tratan los sardos y los narcos. Por supuesto, el teniente no supo como responder. Seguramente él y su homólogo en los carteles se han de preguntar lo mismo. Sin embargo, hay que vivir la vida y criar la siguiente generación de Mexicanos a como se dé lugar. Yo veo las posibilidades mejores en un país pacificado aunque haya mucho que hacer por mejorar las instituciones, que en un país ahogado por la violencia pero con lindos líderes al frente.

Quisiera estar equivocado. Quisiera no estar viviendo esta pesadilla.

¿Como la vez? Despierame please.