Because he can still run the organization from Mexico, when Chapo/Pablo Escobar saw that their governments were going to extradite them, they walked away from prison. Even the Mexican government knows its best to extradite these guys and let the US spend 50k a year keeping these guys alive.
DD: You have to remember that the Mexican government is very adept at manufacturing evidence when it needs it. I am quite sure that they will be able to find any number of witnesses who will testify that they saw Z-40 kill, maim, torture, smuggle, etc., and some of them may even be telling the truth when they testify to that. Also, remember that there is virtually no way to second-guess a Mexican court, like there is in the U.S., when there exists the political will to find somebody guilty. The courts have already gotten the message that the President wants this guy in jail, so the courts will ignore any evidence that does not accomplish this. Remember, the judiciary is not independent of the executive in Mexico, especially in this administration.
I am cynical enough to believe that Z-40's "capture" is a political stunt, timed to show that EPN's policies are working just when so much evidence is coming out that they are not. In fact, I am certain that the Mexican government can arrest any of the top narcos at any time if the government feels it is politically expedient to do so.
So, while I would agree with you that an impartial Mexican judicial system would have a difficult time convicting him of serious charges, the fact that the government has arrested him in the first place shows that it has found the political will to proceed against this particular criminal. Since in Mexico's skewed system of (in)justice this is normally the biggest obstacle in prosecuting any powerful person, I believe most of the work has been accomplished just with the arrest.
Remember also that any decent intelligence network would also have good intelligence/evidence about Z-40's law enforcement accomplices. That is, I bet that key personnel in Mexico's law enforcement apparatus (who are currently on the right side) know who provided protection, who took bribes, who delivered victims, etc. These accomplices generally keep reliable evidence for a rainy day, and they will be persuaded to give this evidence to the prosecution. So, in my opinion, there is no lack of sources of evidence for the prosecution to use.
I agree with you that Z-40 would do better in the U.S., where he is accused of money laundering along with his brother (big deal...), and could probably be convicted of importing drugs or conspiring to import them into the U.S. Again, relatively no big deal, unless they could prove a direct link between him and the smuggling, which would pad the sentence enormously. But I agree that U.S. prosecutors would have a difficult time proving some of the more hefty crimes, such as murder, that would carry heavy sentences. Besides, U.S. prosecutors are even more cynical than I am and see Z-40 more as a source of information than a monster who should be in jail.
And, since I view this "capture" as being politically motivated, this alone persuades me that extradition will probably not happen, at least not immediately. EPN has to extract as much political juice out of the arrest, and he cannot do this by delivering Z-40 to the U.S., which, any way you cut it, would be seen as an admission that the Mexican judicial system is inadequate.
But when I say "not immediately", Mexico may decide to send Z-40 north once they have proven that they caught him, convicted him and imprisoned him. After all, the charges are probably already filed in the U.S., so there are no statute of limitations problems. Extradition on these terms would satisfy the politics in both countries.
So, I believe that Z-40 will be convicted and imprisoned in a Mexican equivalent of a country club jail. He will probably receive a life sentence that will be affirmed pro forma if he appeals. The severity of the charges do not allow him to obtain an amparo, which would worry any normal person familiar with Mexican courts, so I think he's done. He'll be in good company since Mexican jails are infested with Z's, and he has paid for a lot of favors already, which will get him favorable treatment. But I think he'll stay inside.
I don't think he should be extradited, we try so hard to keep him south of the border any other time, why import him now? Why does the u.s. have to play world police? We buy all of his dope and then want to be the ones that prosecute him for selling it to us, typical American law enforcement mentality. I think they will extradite him and he will escape while in our custody.
The Federal District Assembly unanimously approved a change Monday in the District’s criminal procedure code, under which the accused will be presumed innocent. Going into effect next year, the new law will only be in effect for one year, since a new Federal Code, which also gives the benefit of the doubt to the accused, and will mandate this change in the present “guilty until proved otherwise” assumptions now in effect throughout the Republic, will be implemented in 2016.
How long do you think it will take this concept to sink in.
Words are powerful weapons, be careful how you use them.
DD: This will be a fundamental change, made more difficult after centuries of operating under the presumption of guilt principle. The change is not simply a statutory change, but has to be a structural change to have any chance of success. Currently, the whole system of criminal justice in Mexico; the education, the practice, the training, the jurisprudence, the attitudes, the procedure, the process, you name it, is built on the idea that an accused must prove his innocence. In Mexico, this system favors defendants who have the resources or connections to prove their innocence, which leaves out the poor and uneducated. This means the ruling class, which includes lawyers and judges, have no incentive to change.
Even though the change is supposed to be implemented by 2016, there's a lot of work to be done. I predict that practicing lawyers and judges will resist the change because they have a vested interest in the current system. So the change has to start at the most basic level, the law schools, or even earlier, for the concept to take root.
Some time ago I commented in this forum that Mexican judges and lawyers do not have the same concept of justice that common law practitioners have. The assumption that a person is innocent until proven guilty is central to the common law idea of justice. It is an article of faith that without a system of justice built upon that principle the State will violate a person's rights with impunity and justice will be arbitrary. This sounds very much like what's in place in Mexico, doesn't it?
Going back to your original post, I think it's ironic that Mexico's system of justice, which I believe is corrupt and antiquated, will guarantee Z-40 will be found guilty and incarcerated. I repeat, the biggest step was for the government to find the political huevos to arrest the guy in the first place. After that, the rest is a piece of cake.
JTBESQ: I don't think he will be extradited immediately, which is what I wrote. What I said was that his capture is politically valuable for the EPN administration, so he will be convicted and imprisoned in Mexico. When he is no longer as valuable, he may be extradited to the U.S. to maintain good relations between the two countries. He can be convicted of money laundering in the U.S. using the same evidence used to convict his brother. As you may recall, he was a named codefendant in that proceeding. It's reasonable to conclude Z-40 would also be found guilty.
I am sure the U.S. authorities have enough evidence to convict him on drug trafficking charges, and I would be willing to bet there are already sealed indictments in place to make sure he can be tried if Mexico ever allows his extradition. Whether he could be tried for murder in the U.S. is another matter, and I have no idea what kind of evidence the U.S. Attorney would use. But you cannot rule out a prosecution on those charges, since Z-40 has been a prolific murderer, according to most sources.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all in favor of capturing these narcos, but I still believe that Mexican authorities know the location of most, if not all, of these criminals. They just do not have the political will to act.
Apparently there were at least one survivor to the 72 immigrants killed. He would make a perfect witness to a crime Z-40 is said to have participated in. Besides, there are a bunch of disgruntled Zetas in prison believing z-40 ratted them out, and protected witnesses which have already pointed him out.
It would surprise me beyond peeing in my pants if Z-40 does not end up in The Federal Social Readaptation Center No. 1, better known as Altiplano.