Mexico's Drug War: No sign of "light at the end of the tunnel"

[primus421]

An article from May 14, a Q & A with Jorge Castaneda. I apologize if this article has already been posted, just found it and wanted to share it....cheers and gracias!

By msnbc.com
Mexico is struggling to contain a drugs war that has claimed more than 50,000 lives in less than six years. Msnbc.com's F. Brinley Bruton spoke to NBC News contributor Jorge Castañeda, who is a former Mexican foreign minister and a New York University professor, about the problems he sees with the ongoing efforts to stamp out the illicit trade and possible ways out of the violence.

Q: An estimated 50,000 people have been killed in Mexico since 2006, the country is one of the most dangerous in which to be a journalist, and kidnapping and extortion are rife. Is Mexico teetering over into chaos?

A: It is not true, but it's less inaccurate that it was three or four years ago. It’s not teetering on the verge of chaos because violence remains concentrated in a few places. But those places have been changing over the past five years. The violence and killings move from one state or one region to another depending on where the army is, where the national police is, what the economic circumstances are in in a given region.

Another factor is that violence now seems to be stabilizing at very high levels.  It has pretty much leveled off at about 1,000 drug-linked executions a month –- about 12,000 per year. All very high levels, but it is no longer growing.

The problem is that this has been going on for almost six years. It is much more difficult to claim now that this is a temporary problem that will soon be resolved once the cartels are destroyed or weakened or thrown out or whatever.

At six years on, it is beginning to look more difficult to see any kind of light at the end of the tunnel.
Nearly 50 bodies found dumped on Mexico highway

Q: What is the alternative to the war on drugs?

A: I’m against the war. I thought it was a mistake from the very beginning. That said, I can see how many well-intentioned people would for one year, for two years, for three years believe that with a little more time the violence would begin to decline, supply routes of drugs from Mexico to the United States would begin to shut down, the kingpins would be caught and all of this would sort of go away.

None of these things have happened.

A few kingpins have been caught, but many others, the biggest ones, have not. There is no indication that there has been any decrease in overall drug consumption in the U.S. The Americans point to some decline in powder cocaine but an increase in marijuana, methamphetamines, etc. Those come from Mexico also.
If you put it all together, you see very meager results given the exorbitant costs for Mexico.


Q: What are the costs to Mexico of fighting this war?

A: I mean 50,000 dead, about 50 billion in expenditures ...  kidnappings, extortions, etc. Plus the terrible deterioration of Mexico’s image in the world, and for a country that thrives on tourism, that’s a big problem. And the human-rights violations that have increased exponentially over the past six years.

Q: So what are the realistic solutions? Deal with the cartels? Legalization? More military involvement? Just live with it?

A: I think it’s a combination of all of those. More military involvement -- we don’t have, we just don’t have the troops, we don’t have the money, we don’t have the equipment.  We don’t have any of the things that are necessary to significantly increase the military involvement.

Q: A lot of American troops are coming back from Afghanistan …

A: Yes, well, they could be sent to Mexico, or they could be sent to the U.S. and the United States could do this job from its side of the border. The point being that  ... there is a reasonable case to be made for dramatically increasing the size of the national police force, from 25,000 to 30,000 now to 100,000 or 150,000.  That would be the minimum that would be necessary given that ... there is a great consensus in Mexico that municipal and state police are useless.

Q: Indeed, Mexican states have had to fire their entire police forces.

A: Exactly, just redo the whole thing. So there’s a good case to be made for increasing the number of national police troops to 100,000 or 150,000. The National Action Party (known by its Spanish acronym PAN) candidate for president has said 150,000 troops. That makes sense, but that takes time, and that costs a lot of money. Now you still are not ever going to ever have enough police to really patrol the whole country.  So then the question is, since you’re going to have scarce resources, where do you want to concentrate those scarce resources and on what do you want to concentrate them?

And that is where the real disagreement exists between the government and people like myself. The government has basically concentrated all its resources these past five-and-a-half years on fighting drug trafficking. I think those resources should be concentrated on fighting the effects of violence and crime that hurt people –- kidnapping, extortion, holdups, automobile thefts, etc. –- and basically not concentrated on drug trafficking.

You don’t have to make a deal with the cartels, you don’t sit down and talk with them, you don’t shake hands with them. You just concentrate your resources on what matters to you; you don’t concentrate them on what matters to the U.S.

Q: But in terms of lobbying, isn’t legalization a bit of a radioactive subject in the United States? Politicians hardly mention it in public.

A: Yes and no.  Just this past weekend a state legislature in Connecticut approved medical marijuana, which for all practical purposes is legalization. This is the 17th state, together with the District of Columbia, and it is moving forward on the ballot in two states for full legalization in November.

So politicians don’t touch it, but there’s a real movement in American society, which is being reflected in medical marijuana, which is being reflected in a decline in incarceration rates, which is being reflected in more money being spent on prevention and less on punitive policies now in Obama’s budgets.  You have a lot of changes that are going on, (but) people don’t want to talk about them. But there’s nothing wrong with hypocrisy. Honesty is overrated in these matters.

Q: “Poor Mexico, so far from God, so close to the United States” has been a popular saying in Mexico.  Do you think most people feel that way?

A: Perhaps it summed up what many Mexicans believed until the 1980s and ‘90s. But I think that from 1982 onwards it became clear that were it not for recurrent American bailouts and were it not for closer economic ties with the U.S., whether it was tourism or immigration then NAFTA, then investment ... that all of this is an opportunity, it is not a misfortune.

Now most Mexicans believe that by being close to the United States geographically and close economically, socially, etc., is not a misfortune but rather an opportunity.
One killed every half hour in Mexico drug-related violence

Q: On the subject of the war on drugs, what can Mexico legitimately ask of the U.S.?

A: It can ask what President Felipe Calderon has been asking and what every president has been asking for the past 40 years, which is, stop consuming so many drugs and repeal the Second Amendment -- stop allowing people to buy guns in the United States and then export them to Mexico.

The usefulness and effectiveness of asking those two things is very much open to question in my mind. I don’t see what we gain by whining about this when we know it’s not going to happen. It is very similar to how the Americans whine, “Why don’t the Mexicans get their house in order, stop sending all these people to the U.S.?”

It’s not going to happen.  All the whining in the world is not going to stop Mexicans from going to the U.S. They’ve been doing it for over a century.  And all the Mexican whining in the world is not going to stop Americans from smoking pot.

Q: Do you feel optimistic about the future of Mexico?

A: I’m very optimistic. I think if Mexico gets three or four things straight over the next year or two, it can finally take off and become a middle class, poor-rich country within 10-15 years.

And I think it will. We have to put this war behind us. It just can’t go on. We have to change some fundamental policies, mainly on the ant-trust fron. We have to find a way to distribute the fruits of growth better, but in a rational, modern, effective way. And we have to improve the educational system rather dramatically and soon.

But these are not impossible to do.

[AJ]

Unfortunately, Americans will never stop consuming drugs and the harder that the times get, the more people will get high off of some kind of drug. I say take small steps forward.....not backwards.....and keep going forward until you reach progressive conclusions. How to do this is through the U.S. and Mexico working together as allies and not as distant neighbors. How many times does Obama visit Calderon in Mexico a year and vice versa? 2 times a year each (more or less)? That is not a close relationship between two neighboring countries. I wonder if these two leaders even talk on the phone much? Calderon has been talking a lot smack at the U.S. lately. There's definitely a lot of animosity between these two countries that is not even discussed. There has to be communication between our leaders in order for there to be any real progress.

[Baggy]

What bugs me is when they claim they dont have the dosh to pay for this n that,they dont have the guns to fight them. I'm pretty sure they have something similar to what we here call the 'proceeds of crime act' where government agencies can use confiscated goods and moneys to fund operations. When they take a few million off a cartel kingpin instead of putting that money to good use it sits in a lockup somewhere tagged as evidence to be used in a court case at a later date. Wouldnt photos and an IOU suffice as far as evidence concerning money go in court??IF The owner of the money is even still alive.what do they do with all the dead mans money they confiscate?pay off bribes.....?Take the fkn money and use it, Same with all the weapons instead of making some bitchass token sign saying nomore weapons they could have armed an entire battalion.If youre a forward thinker like me im sure you get just as confused by the current state of, "Fuckit we cant do anything more" approach that the govt seem to be taking.

[Chimera]

Do you really believe that confiscated $$$, etc., just sits there tagged in some evidence room, collecting dust until the drug lord goes to court?  Baggy. Darlin'. You're not thinking. This is Mexico.  First, what makes you think our erstwhile druglord is ever going to make it to court? Second, what makes you think the loot is ever going to get any further than the arresting officers' pockets? Eh?

[Baggy]

lol, i get what youre saying. but we've all seen the photos of mountains of money and im sure calderon has too... So if he knows its there and IF he is as "uncorruptable" (if theres such a word/thing)  as he claims than thats what should be done with the money. the merida initiative is worth 37million.. .. It wouldnt take them long to take thatmuch in seizures in mx at the rate they find it lately.

**EDIT** merida or mierda is worth about 1.6billion, 37million was just for two planes the bank of mexico payed for and leased to the military for the next 20 years,my bad

[drattler]

Who can argue that the USA should keep using massive quantitys of illegal and legal drugs, it needs to stop, BUT, Americans are the most overall DRUG dependent populations in the world, How do you reverse a 40 yr. trend of no pain,no discomfort,a pill for everything,, Millions of school kids on riddlin,prosack, ( the pink pill, the purple pill) ?  All encouraged  on TV the Govt and Doctors Media glamor of weed,coke etc?  As far as guns are concerned research indicates more guns less crime. Mexicos hostility tword Mexicans having guns is clearly Unconstitutional vs the Mx Constitution. But Progressives universally oppose people being armed, which I do not understand. Whatever

[Baggy]

Do a little research. americas drug problems were caused by the american government... Look into why AIR AMERICA was started.its a known fact it was mostly for the CIA to move cocaine. had nada to do with mexico

[Baggy]

And also look into why heroin was created, As a cure for morphine addiction that was rife in the US cause of the constant wars they keep getting into. Then look into why the CIA taught the vietnamese/thai hill tribes how to do large scale manufacturing of diacetylmorphine...i dont have time to explain it all but before people start blaming this n that on mexico they should go waaaaay back and find the truth. biggest hypocrites EVER

[primus421]

Heisenberg knows his shit....good job Baggy on the history, your spot on but thats no surprise.

[Baggy]

Operation JUST CAUSE / NIFTY PACKAGE

On December 20, 1989, the United States invaded Panama as part of Operation Just Cause, which involved 25,000 American troops. Gen. Manuel Noriega, head of the government of Panama, had been giving military assistance to Contra groups in Nicaragua at the request of the U.S. which, in exchange, allowed him to continue his drug trafficking activities, which they had known about since the 1960s.When the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) tried to indict Noriega in 1971, the CIA prevented them from doing so.The CIA, which was then directed by future president George H. W. Bush, provided Noriega with hundreds of thousands of dollars per year as payment for his work in Latin America.,When CIA pilot Eugene Hasenfus was shot down over Nicaragua by the Sandinistas, documents aboard the plane revealed many of the CIA's activities in Latin America, and the CIA's connections with Noriega became a public relations "liability" for the U.S. government, which finally allowed the DEA to indict him for drug trafficking, after decades of allowing his drug operations to proceed unchecked.Operation Just Cause, whose purpose was to capture Noriega, killed numerous Panamanian civilians; Noriega found temporary asylum in the Papal Nuncio, and surrendered to U.S. soldiers on January 3, 1990.He was sentenced by a court in Miami to 45 years in prison.

The "war on drugs" is simply a propaganda ploy, a legitimizing story for the American public. We were briefed by the Public Affairs Officers that counter-narcotics was a cover story for curious journalists, friends, and family that our mission, in fact, was to further develop Colombians' capacity for counterinsurgency operations
—Stan Goff, retired U.S. Army Special Forces officer and former military advisor to Colombia

CIA testimony to the House Intelligence Committee and the body of the House report confirmed long-standing allegations – dating back to the mid-1980s – that drug traffickers pervaded the contra operation and used it as a cover for smuggling substantial volumes of cocaine into the United States

[Baggy]

Also you can go back to WWII and see how the americans used the sicilian mafia to keep open ports in the u.s and also helped them smuggle heroin across the world. This is all from NON FICTION works.like i said people tend to forget very quickly and thats the way governments like it. It will probably be another 10 years before the USG admit their part in the drug war in mexico..


1980s to early 1990s, Afghanistan

CIA-supported Moujahedeen rebels engaged heavily in drug trafficking while fighting against the Soviet-supported government and its plans to reform the very backward Afghan society. The Agency's principal client was Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, one of the leading druglords and leading heroin refiner. CIA-supplied trucks and mules, which had carried arms into Afghanistan, were used to transport opium to laboratories along the Afghan-Pakistan border. The output provided up to one half of the heroin used annually in the United States and three-quarters of that used in Western Europe. US officials admitted in 1990 that they had failed to investigate or take action against the drug operation because of a desire not to offend their Pakistani and Afghan allies.In 1993, an official of the DEA called Afghanistan the new Colombia of the drug world.

[Chimera]

Yeah, I know. If they would just, say, split 50-50 what they grab with their citizens the country would be in beautiful shape! Sheesh. Greedy buggers. 

Of course, all the bucks they get in the merida initiative they've got to spend on their planes and guns and soldiers and such, right? Can't waste a single dollar on silly things like, oh, roads, schools, power stations...

[adam]

hi chimera,why would you want to spend the money on schools,roads,hospitals ect.. that might actually help the people!

[Baggy]

Could not find much info on who supplies the small arms to the mx govt but...this is what they waste money on.


Supplier/ Year Year(s) No.
        recipient (R) No. Weapon Weapon of order/ of delivered/
        or licenser (L) ordered designation description licence deliveries produced Comments
       
       
Canada
R: Mexico 2 PT-6 Turboprop 2006 2006 2 For 2 PC-9 trainer aircraft from Switzerland
      4 PW-100 Turboprop/turboshaft 2008 2009 4 For 2 C-295 transport aircraft from Spain
      10 PW-100 Turboprop/turboshaft 2009 2010-2011 10 For 5 C-295 transport aircraft from Spain
      4 PW-100 Turboprop/turboshaft 2010 2011 4 For 2 C-295 transport aircraft from Spain
      (6) PT-6 Turboprop (2011) For 6 PC-9 (T-6C) trainer aircraft from USA

China
R: Mexico 13 Model-56 105mm Towed gun 2006 2006 13 $14 m deal; Type-90 (M-90) version

Denmark
R: Mexico 4 SCANTER-2001 Sea search radar (2001) 2003-2010 4 For 4 Oaxaca OPV produced in Mexico
      2 SCANTER-2001 Sea search radar (2007) 2008 2 For modernization of 2 Newport (Papaloapan) landing ships
France
R: Mexico 2 AS-365/AS-565 Panther Helicopter 2003 2005 2 AS-565SB version; option on 8 more
      3 AS-365/AS-565 Panther Helicopter (2008) 2010 (3) $53 m deal; incl 1 for VIP transport and SAR; AS-565MB version
      6 EC-225/EC-725 Helicopter 2009 2011 2 $212 m deal; delivery 2011-2012
      6 EC-225/EC-725 Helicopter 2010 Delivery 2012-2013

Israel
R: Mexico 4 S-65/Yasur-2000 Helicopter 2004 2005 4 Ex-Israeli; $26-27 m deal
      2 Hermes-450 UAV 2008 2009 2 Part of $25 m deal

Italy
R: Mexico 4 Compact 76mm Naval gun (2001) 2003-2010 4 For 4 Oaxaca OPV produced in Mexico
      4 Orion RTN-25X Fire control radar (2001) 2003-2010 4 For 4 Oaxaca OPV produced in Mexico
      4 C-27J Spartan Transport aircraft 2011 2011 (2) $200 m deal; delivery 2011-2012

Qatar
R: Mexico 559 MILAN Anti-tank missile (2006) 2006 559 Ex-Qatari

Russia
R: Mexico 5 Mi-8MT/Mi-17/Hip-H Helicopter (2004) 2006 5 Possibly second-hand and modernized before delivery; Mi-17 version
      1 Mi-8MT/Mi-17/Hip-H Helicopter 2009 2010 1 Mi-17V-5 version
      3 Mi-8MT/Mi-17/Hip-H Helicopter 2011 Mi-17V-5 version; delivery 2012

Spain
R: Mexico 2 C-295 Transport aircraft 2008 2009 2 Part of $212 m deal
      2 CN-235MP MP aircraft 2008 2010 2 5 C-295 Transport aircraft 2009 2010-2011 5 MXN1.4 b ($110 m) deal; bought by Mexican bank and leased for 20 years for MXN5.4b ($433 m)
      2 CN-235MP MP aircraft (2009) Status uncertain
      4 CN-235MP MP aircraft (2009) 2011 1 $210m deal (financed by US 'FMF' aid under 'Merida Initiative'); probably from US production line; delivery 2011-2012
      2 C-295 Transport aircraft 2010 2011 2 MNX1.7b deal (bought by Mexican bank and leased for 20 years to Mexican armed forces)
R: Mexico (2) SAK-70 Mk-2 57mm Naval gun (2000) 2007 (2) For modernization of 4 Holzinger OPV
Switzerland
R: Mexico 2 PC-9 Trainer aircraft 2006 2006 2 $12 m deal
USA
R: Mexico 24 Caterpillar-3616 Diesel engine (1997) 1998-2010 24 For 4 Sierra, 4 Durango and 4 Oaxaca OPV produced in Mexico
      8 SeaVue MP aircraft radar 2002 2004-2006 (8) For modernization of 8 C-212 MP aircraft in Spain and Mexico to C-212ES5MSA
      4 AN/MPQ-64 Air search radar 2003 2006 4 $26 m deal
      4 Schweizer-330 Light helicopter (2003) 2006 4
      2 AN/APS-143(V) MP aircraft radar 2008 2010 2 For 2 CN-235MP MP aircraft from Spain
      (2) Cessna-208 Caravan Light transport ac 2008 2009 (2) Financed by US aid under 'Merida Initiative'; surveillance or possibly ELINT version; for anti-narcotics operations
      4 CT-7 Turboprop 2008 2010 4 For 2 CN-235MP MP aircraft from Spain
      4 CT-7 Turboprop 2008 2010 4 For 2 C-235 MP aircraft from Spain
      1 Gulfstream-4 Light transport ac 2008 2008 1 $42 m deal; for VIP transport
        3 Bell-412 Helicopter (2009) 2010 3 Financed by US 'FMF' aid under 'Merida Initiative'; from Canadian production line; Bell-412EP version
      5 Bell-412 Helicopter 2009 2009 5 $51-104 m deal (financed by 'FMF' aid under 'Merida Initiative'); Bell-412EP version; from Canadian production line
      4 CT-7 Turboprop (2009) For 2 CN-235MP MP aircraft from Spain
      (8) CT-7 Turboprop (2009) 2011 2 For 4 CN-235MP MP aircraft from Spain
      6 AN/APS-143(V) MP aircraft radar 2010 2011 (2) For 6 CN-235MP MP aircraft from Spain; APS-143(V)3 version
      3 S-70/UH-60L Blackhawk Helicopter 2010 $35 m deal (financed by USA under 'Merida Initiative); UH-60M version; status uncertain; delivery 2012
      3 S-70/UH-60L Blackhawk Helicopter 2010 2011 3 $37 m deal (financed by 'FMF' aid under 'Merida Initiative'); UH-60M version
      170 Sand Cat APV (2010) 2010-2011 (56)
      (8) AE-2100 Turboprop 2011 2011 (4) For 4 C-27J transport aircraft from Italy
      6 PC-9 Trainer aircraft (2011) T-6C+ version; incl for combat role; delivery 2012


 Im not certain but i think VIP is code for DRUGS lol.fkn cia

[Havana]

Baggy!

Where and how dah heck did you find that fine list?

just Google search under what Mexico does with Merida Initiative money?

I've resigned myself that I have plenty to learn in the "search" department.

We've read about some of these purchases like the Hermes but not much else.

I love the historical background you give.  Right on.

[Baggy]

hahaah,definately not from google search.  a friend of a friend of a friend who owns a monkey found it for me ^^

but yea pretty much any country that does legit arms trading i can get info on, Really its the black market shit we need to worry about and the covert stuff thats hard to find

[Chimera]

Tell the monkey thanks for the great intel!

[Baggy]

no worries i just have to pay him in bananas.