Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

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Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Mica
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

ElGrandeRojo
I cringe for the honest Mexican people. If drug profits drop, the DTO's will turn to extortion, theft, and ransoms more heavily. Could be an even sadder life for honest citizens.
ElGrandeRojo
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

elrojo
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It is very possible that the Mexican economy collapses, most likely will, mexican dto’s have the guns and crime rates will rise once it’s on full effect, desperation will drive organization’s to possibly over throw the government in certain areas where government forces are scarce imo, and like most of us borderland beat users know they absolutely can, best time to officially transition from a drug trafficking organization to a full on terrorist organization. If you’re smart you’ll side with the government as this will blow over eventually it could be a matter of weeks or months even.
We’ll see how things turn out but it’s not looking good at all whatsoever.
All I can say is nyc is not looking well, and I can’t  picture anyone around here buying drugs with what’s going on, drug sales must be at an all time low around here.
Stay safe guys.
The economy here is horrible. People are losing jobs from left to right. The 2008 recession has nothing on this. Guys
Be prepared if you’re in a major city in the us.
White collared and blue collared workers are being laid off and being told to file for unemployment by their employers.
NYC will most likely be shut down within the next 48 hours.
Workers in the medical field, cops, firefighters, deli’s, pharmacies, laundromats, supermarkets and construction are the only ones working. Everyone else is laid off. Restaurants are only keeping cooks for their deliveries, and bartenders serving liquor to go.
Restaurants and bars will be closed eventually. Front of house staff all laid off.
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Mosco
Mexico is way behind the curve on epidemic issues.   Just to drive this point home, consider the epidemic of violent crimes and the insipid responses to deal with the injured (physically, PTSD, economic) and the dead.  Mexico has had ample time to enlarge moruges and the necessary forensic services needed.  Well, in many locale bodies lay stinking in morgue parking lots, or in refrigerator trucks, or just buried in mass grave with no further hope of forensic investigation.

How about a nation that can't provide basic needs for masses of poor people?  Have you taken a Google Earth tour of towns and villages?  Do it and you will see incredible crowding ,....like bee hives with families  jammed into small homes ...just  waiting for microbes and virus infections.  

Communicable diseases thrive in crowded quarters, and Mexico certainly qualifies in this respect.  Add  to this factor the fact that poor Mexicans (by definition) do not have the resources for health needs wealthier countries take for granted.

As to the criminal DTO (narco-cartels ) and their vast armies of sicarios and related personnel... I am sure they will figure out ways to survive or even exploit for profit and power the pandemic situation.   Criminal minds are like that... don't worry, they will survive.

This is a great thread and I hope it gets lots of posts because the topic is of paramount importance.

God, I pray the Corona Virus is not as deadly as some experts think. Mexico is NOT ready for such an eventuality.

  Mosco
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Parro


POPULATIONS:

126,600,000 Mexico

60,300,000 Italy

328,200,000 USA

210,000,000 Brazil

4,200,000 Panama

REPORTED CASES:

82 Mexico

31,506 Italy

6,362 USA

321 Brazil

201 Chile

DEATHS:

0, Mexico

2,503 Italy

101 USA

1 Brazil

1 Panama

Mexico is way under-reported.  The border will be sealed soon.  20% projected unemployment in USA will increase deportation, service industries, which most Mexican people dominant, will eventually come to a stop.  Current estimates are -10% GDP for the states.  Canada has already banned travel to the country, with the exception of USA citizens.  Mortality rates from the youngest (millennial) is less than 1%.  Middle age, 3 - 5%, those over 60, 15%.  The most elderly, 75+, 20%.  Currently senior living is in lockdown in the states.  Hospitals have limited incoming patients to one other, the primary caregiver.  That went away today.  The states are 3-4 weeks behind the Italian curve.  Mexico, does not even recognize they are on an exponential curve.

Cartels will be weakened.  With closed borders over international bridges, and ports shut down to global traffic, they will have to go back to old style smuggling.  But they will be much more obvious in sparse traffic.  Confined spaces, aircraft, buses, cruise lines, etc. propagate the contagion.  Drug buyers, will have scarcer demand, resulting in lower prices.  Extortion, kidnapping, etc. will not be effective but with foreigners who will not be there.  Petrol theft will increase based on cost.  Construction sites will be closed, starting today with all construction ceasing in Boston, but soon will be a month, two months etc.  

I am a business owner.  State of Virginia health officials to us yesterday 60 days were their prediction in their models for the peak.  If so, the peak has a decline of 2.5 months as well.  It will get worse before better, but it will eventually go away as all pandemics have in world history.  Currently our predictions are July.  USA is currently stating that there are 1,000 cases per each reported cases unreported as of now.  This would, substantiate the news from Ohio, 100,000, New York and others.  6,000 tests total in USA as of yesterday, is no where near the 20,000 administered daily in S. Korea.  USA is ramping up to 6,000 tests daily, Mexico?  Who knows but believe me, they are way behind. US health officials reported to us today, that it is chaos.  Too bad that we didn't see this coming from December.

Mica, here is the latest we received today from SHRM:

- If you are not a remote employee, carry your lunch to work

- Across a desk from someone 3' distance

- Standing in conversation, 6' distance

- disinfectants, 60% alcohol or more.  Soap and water more effective in destroying the lipid shell of the virus.  20 seconds

- bleach and water , most effective in killing outright the virus

- Self isolate when possible

- Avoid bars, restaurants, food courts, etc. for the near future

- No meetings of no more than 10 people, and if so, in every other chair

The most important thing - the well being of each other and one's selves.  The faster and better we perform these simple behaviors, the quicker we get back to something we know a bit better, but it will never be the same.


MM
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

MM
This post was updated on .
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Unfortunately some businesses are almost recession proof.  Anything vice related is top of the list.  My guess is that after an initial shock, cartel goods will recover at a much more rapid pace than the economies as a whole and probably grow...

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/nnqygx/how-the-mob-gets-rich-off-of-recessions-0000528-v21n12

https://www.drugsandalcohol.ie/29112/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0955395917300877

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/10/15/How-Sex-and-Drugs-Saved-Italy-Recession
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Mosco
In reply to this post by Parro
Thanks a million Parro. You are a gentleman and a scholar.  The article is muy meaty and right on target.
Rhetorical question: Why do you think Mexico is "behind the curve"?  (is it just basic ignorance, a political issue, an incompetance or corrupted radio and T.V. , or ...)
Mosco
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Parro
This post was updated on .
Mosco, I think foremost is education.  While Mexico over all has a good literacy rate, school is not mandated in high school and higher education. I know brilliant people in Mexico, don't get me wrong and Monterrey has fantastic schools, but in When education is not mandatory or available in so many small communities.  Their current press states that it is expected and they might get a few thousand cases.  That's wishful thinking since a lot of the simple measures is so opposed to the culture.  Secondly, I think AMLO does not lead by good example.  His hugs, not guns has been ramped up.  When Mexican media questions this, he says hugs are more important than ever.  That is not leading by example.  Expect their tourism to get decimated and NAFTA will change the exchange of goods, as it has with the USA and China.  China and the USA economies are being terribly hit.  Many businesses will not survive that are in healthier economies.

Italy in less than a month has gone from 3 coronavirus cases to 29,413 cases and 2,503 deaths as stated yesterday.  USA was not prepared with leadership downplaying it, even though warning signs were being sent out in China.  Do not believe in China statistics as a communist country, it's much worse than they report because they want to be seen as being in control, but better statistics come from democracies who tend to be more transparent.

Mexico will not have the hospital beds to accommodate the sick.  They are the tenth largest country in the world.  They do have youth, 0 - 14 is 27.8%, 15 - 24 years old is 18.2%, 25 - 54 years old is 40.5% and then it falls sharply.  So Mexican's survival rate should be good, if anyone can call it that.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/mexico-s-l-pez-obrador-ripped-touching-people-holding-rallies-n1161911



Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been slammed for disregarding his own government's social distancing guidelines to stem the growing coronavirus pandemic: AMLO, as he is called, has continued to hold mass rallies where he shakes hands and even greets supporters with hugs and kisses.

Former Mexican President Felipe Calderón warned on Twitter that López-Obrador "could be a source of contagion. ... If out of 300 people he greets, one is infected, he can infect the rest of the healthy people."

López-Obrador was criticized by a blogger, Frida García, for being "irresponsible," after he declined to use hand sanitizer before entering a room to hold a news conference.

There, he characterized pre-emptive measures the country is taking, like suspending school, as "vacations."

This weekend, Mexico’s health ministry introduced an initiative called “Sana Distancia” or “Healthy Distance” aimed at getting the public to avoid infecting one another by practicing social distancing. Schools are suspended starting March 23.

Mexico has over 50 confirmed coronavirus cases. For now it has taken a less stringent approach to the virus than some of its neighbors; its borders are still open and it's not restricting foreign visitors yet. Over the weekend, a large music festival was held in Mexico City, and soccer games still had fans in attendance.

López-Obrador, 66, said that if health officials recommend that he suspend encounters with the public, he will follow the order, but added there is no need to go around with a face mask.

He said that he would take a coronavirus test if doctors asked him to, but that it would prompt everyone to do the same, overwhelming laboratories.

Mexico's deputy health minister, Hugo López-Gatell, defended López-Obrador’s actions and has not said when he should stop holding rallies.

During a news conference Tuesday, López-Gatell said it’s important not to “contaminate” the coronavirus outbreak with a “political agenda” and focus on information that is “technical” and “reasonable.”

Yet the practice of social distancing — including in some cases strict quarantine measures — is, according to health experts around the globe, the best way to try to contain the growing and deadly pandemic.

Carlos Loret De Mola, a columnist in Mexico's largest newspaper, El Universal, wrote on Tuesday that the country's financial, educational and private sector had pretty much disregarded all of the president's comments downplaying the spread and impact of coronavirus.

"For the world, for Mexican society and even for his own Cabinet, the president has been overruled," Loret de Mola wrote.

El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, Mexico's neighbors to the south, have taken strict measures to limit the spread of the virus. El Salvador suspended all passenger flights to San Salvador, and Guatemala closed all its borders. Honduras is in near lockdown after the government sent public and private sector workers home, ended flights and suspended public transportation.
J
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

J
In reply to this post by Mica
Fentanyl, meth and heroin retail sales in Mexico, places like Tijuana, may see a slight dip, but I doubt it, don't know enough to weigh in on US retail or wholesale.  
MX
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

MX
In reply to this post by Mica
Great post. Thank you Mica and everyone for contributing. I've been trying to find a report that talks about the potential impact of coronavirus and organized crime activity (even if its worldwide and not tied to Mexico, but I haven't been very successful).

I had to cancel a work trip to Mexico City this week. I have other business trips in Mexico throughout the year and everything is pending cancellation. Friends in Monterrey have told me that their city began implementing quarantine measures over the weekend, and many people are working from home now. But a lot of employers aren’t taking it seriously and are making people come in when they can absolutely work remotely.

I live in a Mexican border town and the coronavirus issue has been largely ignored. There was a 10K the other day and other events are still on schedule. People are not taking it seriously and I imagine it is like that in most places outside of Mexico City. Only schools have closed but that just means students will gather in public elsewhere.

Here's an article I found about coronavirus, Colombia and organized crime.
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Mica
This post was updated on .
In reply to this post by Mica
So no misinformation is spread, it would be responsible of me to delete the post.  I really enjoyed reading everything you all posted and I am sure many of the things discussed will reappear in news post.

I think we can keep this thread going if we try and stick to the facts and our responsible (which everyone has been so far).
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Mica
In reply to this post by Mica
The big US city closing bars, restaurants, and gyms has occurred near Cancun in Isla Mujeres.

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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Mica
Some updated facts from a trusted source and friend of BB.

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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Parro
https://www.insightcrime.org/news/brief/coronavirus-squeezing-mexico-criminal-groups/

In this article, China and their counterparts are having a hard time getting the precursors to make fentanyl as a symptom of the Coronavirus.  



In February, it emerged that La Unión de Tepito, which controls much of the sale of counterfeit goods across Mexico City, was facing pushback from businesses who said they could not make extortion payments as they were no longer getting shipments of illegal merchandise from China, MVS Noticias reported.

Since at least 2010, a group within La Unión de Tepito, known as “Los Marco Polos,” has been in charge of going to China with thousands of dollars in cash to secure counterfeit clothes, jewelry and accessories to be sold in the shops and markets of central Mexico City, according to La Silla Rota. This activity is as important economically to La Unión Tepito as drug trafficking, according to MVS Noticias.

But in recent months, Los Marco Polos have been grounded due to the coronavirus lockdowns, unable to travel to China and leaving businesses high and dry without alternative supply routes.

SEE ALSO: Mexico News and Profiles

In late January, the criminal group reportedly told shopkeepers that the journeys to China had been suspended. Some of these businesses, angry at paying for products they will not receive on time, have allegedly threatened to stop paying the extortion payments to La Unión de Tepito as a result. This situation is unlikely to change for several months, given the continued spread of the virus.

And this is not the only possible consequence for Mexico’s cartels. The Jalisco Cartel New Generation (Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación — CJNG) is reportedly also struggling to source chemical precursors from China to make fentanyl, the synthetic opioid which has caused thousands of deaths in the United States and Mexico alike.

On March 5, Mexican radio show Nación Criminal, citing a source within Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office, reported that the coronavirus had suspended the fentanyl supply chain with CJNG’s partners in China that are unable to deliver the precursors.

In response, the source said the CJNG may have to hike its prices and potentially lose clients to other competitors. In 2020, a wide range of criminal groups in Mexico has been contesting for the prized trafficking of fentanyl.

InSight Crime Analysis

The global lockdown due to the coronavirus appears to be hitting legal and illegal economies equally hard, but it is likely the supply chain troubles of La Unión de Tepito and the CJNG are only the beginning.

Criminal groups across the region will feel the squeeze.

Countries across Latin America are shutting down borders and preventing air travel, which is likely to significantly disrupt criminal economies like drug trafficking, contraband smuggling and human trafficking.

With most aircraft grounded, illicit drug flights that have become a mainstay of drug trafficking in the region may become easier to track.

This situation, set to last for several months, will test the resiliency of criminal structures. Much like legitimate businesses, large groups such as the CJNG, which operate across large areas of territory and across multiple criminal economies, will have a greater capacity to resist the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus.

SEE ALSO: CJNG News and Profile

But especially in Mexico, where criminals groups have been vulnerable to fragmentation, groups like La Unión de Tepito, focused on one geographical area or reliant on fewer means of income, may struggle.

Yet criminal groups are nothing if not able to find opportunities in a crisis. In Honduras, after the government locked down the borders due to the virus, human traffickers, known as “coyotes,” raised their prices to help people and contraband get in or out of the country illegally, El Diario de Hoy reported.

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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Mica
Good post Parro!
MX
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

MX
In reply to this post by Parro
Good share, Parro. I enjoy reading InSight Crime and I think the article is well-researched.
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Parro
Good evening Mica and MX, thank you for your reading and so on. Today I heard about a man that was an agnostic, insomniac, dyslexic and he laid in his bed, all day, wondering about his belief in Dog.  (Imagine!)

Sorry, a lot of crazy news by a lot of non humorous people.  Do your responsibility and know you can laugh.



 
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Mosco
This post was updated on .
Parro: The InsightCrime article was very good. Thanks!
About the dyslexic guy?  Dog? Yeah, it took me awhile.  
Keep up the good work . We appreciate what you are doing.

BTW: IMO, The criminal elements in Mexico are mostly made up of people with "antisocial" values  (sociopaths, psychopaths, deviants,).  These scum form a "functional" parts of Mexican society and the "under-economy".  Their activities  and economic power is formidable and like the Corona virus these bad people will not be denied.

People who are sociopaths, psychopaths, morally bankrupt,  and desperate will most definately act-out their criminal ways, deadly virus or no.  By definition, most do not really give a rats ass about the welfare of their nation or compatriots...

What I wrote above is based on readings of former plagues (like the Black Death of the Middle Ages).   These kinds of people already kidnap, rob, rape, burn, shoot, hang, decapitate, dismember, and flay humans.  Many even worship Santa Muerte!  

And, the common good citizen during this coming crisis?  He has virtually nothing of substance  to defend themselves with.  Historically, Mexican politicians, the Army, Marina, cops, judges, jails, prisons,  and  even God and his saints have proven dysfunctional, inept, or corrupt.

About "Education":  Yeah, so people can read and count.  This literally means nothing in desperate situations.  America has many "educated" people, yet, we see much evidence of stupidity in the masses.  Of course, you realize that 1/2   of a population has I.Q. levels under 100, by definition.  Literacy, can't fix that!   I even know a few college grads that I wouldn't trust to mow my lawn. Serious!  And beside, it would take at least 10 years to make a dent in Mexico's education problems.

Ordinary citizens everywhere worldwide will be way to busy fighting the pandemic's (medico-social-economic, etc) problems issues.  And, it may come to pass, that citizens in such dire staights will suddenly turn on real and imagined criminals as "scapegoats" to be eliminated like vermin.  It has happened before many times in human history... blaa, blaa, blaa.

I am a pessimist and kind of cynical by nature ...So:
God, I pray that I am wrong about where things might go in the world.  
Mosco
MX
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

MX
In reply to this post by Parro
Parro, I posted the InSight Crime article to the mainboard after getting approvals. The article and sources it included are very good. I gave you a shout out in the post. Thanks again!
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Re: Coronavirus: The future of Mexico, tourism and cartels

Parro
MX appreciate you!  News keeps coming in about Coronavirus that are leading to shortages of Fentanyl and Meth.  In this article by Vice, the supply chain and shortage of labor.  Two main ports, are Lazaro Cardenas and Mazatlan.  China is at 50% capacity on these precursors.  A pound of meth, wholesale was costing 1,500 to 2,500 pesos ($66 to $110), current prices are 6,000 to 7,000 pesos, ($264 to $308).  Demand is expected to decline based on social distancing that parties are not known for, and the unhealthier users will succumb to the virus.

No article that I have read, predicts the supply chain and labor abilities of Mexico in a couple of weeks, which I consider huge, on not on producing drugs, but moving drugs and moving it to places, where stockpiles are ample at the moment in their markets.  In another month, this will be a very interesting situation on how it surfaces on these forums.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wxek4m/coronavirus-is-leading-to-shortages-of-fentanyl-and-meth


Coronavirus Is Leading to Shortages of Fentanyl And Meth

The pandemic has slowed the production and export of chemicals from China to Mexico, for onward smuggling into the U.S.



Drugs
Coronavirus Is Leading to Shortages of Fentanyl And Meth
The pandemic has slowed the production and export of chemicals from China to Mexico, for onward smuggling into the U.S.

Disruptions to global supply chains due to the spread of the coronavirus is hampering production of methamphetamine and fentanyl by Mexico’s cartels, according to VICE sources.

Sinaloa cartel operatives in Mexico told VICE this week that importing the chemical precursors they need to make methamphetamine and illicit fentanyl has become harder and more complicated, which is creating a shortage and pushing up prices.

“Now we are all struggling to get the chemicals to Sinaloa from China,” one drug trafficker told VICE from Culiacán, Sinaloa. Production of methamphetamine and fentanyl is still happening, he said, but at lower rates than usual.

“We haven't stopped producing, but the price of meth is getting pushed up because of the scarcity of chemicals from China….transporting them this far is also getting much more expensive,” the cartel operative said.

China has historically been the main supplier of precursor chemicals and illicitly manufactured fentanyl to Mexico’s cartels. Much of this has been supplied in bulk in cargo rather than via the postal system. The chemicals are often mislabeled to conceal what they are, and shipped to major ports in Mexico such as Lazaro Cardenas in Michoacán and Mazatlán in Sinaloa. Some of the substances are not controlled, such as ammonium chloride and formaldehyde, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), making them easier to source through legitimate companies in China to legitimate or front companies in Mexico.

Mexico’s two major criminal organizations, New Generation Jalisco Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel (with strongholds in each of those states respectively), are though to have control of sea ports. They are Mexico’s biggest producers of both meth and fentanyl, according to recent research.

Even though China appears to be turning a corner on COVID-19, the most recent data showed that Chinese companies have been operating at 50 percent capacity, with around half of their normal staff, according to research earlier this month by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). As a result, six in ten companies are experiencing a delay in delivery and a delay loading goods at Chinese ports.

“For their illicit production purposes, they’re not going to be able to keep up the normal cadence of production,” said Tom Derry, chief executive of the ISM. “They’re dealing with the same economic conditions that every legitimate industry is.”

Chinese manufacturers and vendors of drug ingredients told Reuters in early March that “logistical hurdles and labor shortages” were delaying production and shipments.

Methamphetamine seizures have been on the rise in the United States in recent years, and the purity and potency of the drug have been increasing. The vast majority of meth consumed in the United States comes from Mexico, and users could soon start to see street prices increase north of the border if scarcity of chemical supplies continues for Mexico’s cartels. Prices in Mexico are already rising, another Sinaloa cartel operative in Culiacan, the capital city of Sinaloa, told VICE.

“A pound of meth, wholesale, used to cost between 1,500 and 2,500 pesos ($66 to $110). Now it’s around 6,000 to 7,000 pesos ($264 to $308),” he said. These price changes took place two or three weeks ago.

Dark web dealers in the United States are also warning of price increases in meth due to the difficulty of bringing in the necessary precursors.

The DEA told VICE that it was too early to make an assessment on the impact of coronavirus on supply chains to Mexico’s cartels, but other observers said that it was logical that Mexico’s cartels would be affected.

“The legitimate chemical-pharmaceutical industry is having problems getting active pharmaceutical ingredients out of China, so I’d suspect many of the drug trafficking organizations are as well,” said Bryce Pardo, who has done extensive research on illicit drug supply chains for the Rand Corporation.

“All in all, coronavirus is going to fundamentally alter things across the board. As it pertains to drugs, demand will decline as people are less likely to go out and party, less likely to congregate, and the most chronic of users are likely to be in poor health and succumb to the virus.”

Pardo said it’s possible that some of the more sophisticated branches of the cartels could have prepared for such shortages from chemical-supplying countries by stockpiling chemicals.

But price shifts and shortages on the ground, although anecdotal, suggest that like the rest of the world, Mexico’s drug trafficking organizations didn’t anticipate the business impact of coronavirus, and are unprepared to deal with prolonged shortages of the chemicals that drive their profits.

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