Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

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Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

itsmeagain
In the article on Dr Mireles being freed in 72h somebody wrote the following comment:

"Everyone of these men said there will be a revolution in the near future. They agreed it would put Mexicans in turmoil, hurt the USA financially and as well the people of Mexico for some time. They said you would see many Americans and people with money head North and across the border into the USA in the event there is a revolution."

If a revolution is indeed brewing in Mexico as described above, it means that the Mex government might/probably will seek assistance from the US.

This leads me to wonder how the US administration would react to a scenario like that. Would the US stay neutral, support the ruling (and corrupt) elite or support a revolutionary movement?

Judging by recent events it seems as if the US clearly has taken the position that it wants to protect the ruling elite which is evident by recent supplies of arms:
http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2015/06/is-mexican-govt-outgunned-by-cartels.html

As a reminder it is worth noticing that the US/France/Israel trained and equipped GAFE's were used to neutralize the Zapatista movement.

Also, mantas placed by the Zetas a long time ago reminds us of that it seems as if the US position on Mexico is not entirely kosher:
http://deadlinelive.info/2012/09/27/los-zetas-accuse-the-dea-of-running-the-gulf-drug-cartel/

Any thoughts out there on this???
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Re: Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

Moros
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Re: Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

canadiana
Administrator
OR if the US wanted to support another government if unhappy with this 1.Didnt something similar happen 3 or 4 years ago in 1 of the central American countries.Cant remember which 1,was it Honduras?and I believe US was supporting opposition or did I get that totally wrong?
Doc
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Re: Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

Doc
In reply to this post by itsmeagain
“…In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico. …The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by the Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone 2008 U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM) “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report. http://fas.org/man/eprint/joe2008.pdf Part III: The Contextual World, (C.) Weak and Failing States, page 35
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Re: Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

itsmeagain
What I find very interesting about the parts of the report that you quote here, is that there is no mention of the problem being corruption. The way it is worded (or what you choose to quote) it gives the impression the root cause of Mexicos ills is NOT the corrupt elite ruiling the country (since corruption is not mentioned at all), but the criminal gangs (operating with impunity).
Doc
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Re: Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

Doc
Since the quote is from an official (2008) report of the now disbanded United States Joint Forces Command (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Joint_Forces_Command) it shouldn't come as a surprise that its speculative analysis of "future security environments at the operational level of war" would reflect the perspectives and prejudices of that organization and culture. Nevertheless, while the suggestion that "any descent by the Mexico into chaos would demand an American response" wasn't followed by any suggestion of what the nature or extent of that responce might be, it seemed appropriate enough to include as an answer to the question of what the 'U.S. position on a revolution in Mexico' might be.
     

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Re: Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

Rusotexano
In reply to this post by Moros
ComputerJA wrote
The U.S. would support the government. They cannot afford a full-scale revolution because that is bad for business and can possibly mean the installment of a new, unfriendly government. It's too risky. I think the only way the U.S. would favor revolutionists would be if the current government is no longer of benefit to them and is hostile. What do you think?
My thoughts...

I think this reply hit it on the head. U.S. would support the current government over anyone else, being they're a known entity and not hostile at this point. When and if the Mexican government crosses that line and is no longer convenient for the U.S. Govt., they'll throw them under the bus before close of the business day. We're far from that point and any new government in theory at this point would probably be less friendly to the US than the other way around.

En otras palabras, it's not about picking the side that's more just.

Mtz
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Re: Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

Mtz
Last revolution didn't work we got the PRI.   I know Mexicans very tired of this drug war, do not think they up to a revolution. Here Tamps. people are tired of the kidnappings. Who will  the  cartels support? I agree the US would support Pena Nieto. Mexico needs a strong Dictator like Franco or Diaz.
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Re: Any thoughts on the US position on a revolution in Mexico???

el Jesse James
In reply to this post by itsmeagain
Ask some of the Indian tribes that thought they could trust the US government... oh wait.

No, ask some of the Laotian and Vietnamese hills people that thought they could trust the US government after bravely running point for our Special Forces... oh wait.

Seeing a pattern yet??

There is a world of difference between our warriors and our politicians. If you can get just a platoon of US Marines backing you up... well "no better friend, no worse enemy" as they say.

But the ones at the top telling you that they will give you that platoon of Marines out of the side of their mouth.... "a den of vipers and thieves" is an apt description.