A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

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A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

Chivis
Administrator
   
Mexico Security Memo: April 26, 2011 April 26, 2011 | 1502 GMT I SUBSCRIBE TO STRATFOR AND RECEIVE THE SECURITY UPDATES.  I HAVE FOUND THEM TO BE VERY ACCURATE, NOT PERFECT, BUT ARE ONE OF THE MOST WIDELY USED SITES FOR INFORMATION BY THE MEDIA & SCHOLARS.  IF YOU READERS ARE INTERESTED I WILL POST THEM NOW AND THEN....Chivis


Various drugs are smuggled more intensely in different regions along the U.S.-Mexico border, and some cartels are known to specialize in the production and distribution of certain drugs. Drug seizures can thus indicate much about the degree of influence and control the cartels have in a given area.

For example, most Mexican cartels have produced methamphetamine to an extent, but the Sinaloa Federation and La Familia Michoacana both have histories of large-scale methamphetamine production in the western states of Sinaloa, Durango, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero. Most of the methamphetamine produced by these cartels is smuggled north across the border into California and Arizona, the logical route for the cartels most heavily involved in the drug’s production, given the geographic areas and highways the they control.

Along the Texas border, long-term trends for methamphetamine seizures indicate the drug is moved less frequently and in smaller amounts than other drugs moved through the area, with occasional spikes being reported. STRATFOR sources have said spikes in seizures do not necessarily indicate a meaningful trend. Recently, however, there has been a consistent upswing in the size and frequency of methamphetamine shipments seized along the Texas border, specifically in the section of the border from Laredo to Brownsville, a section controlled mainly by the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas.

Projections of the amount of drugs smuggled across the border, based on collected drug-seizure statistics, are approximations at best. Too many unknowns make precise projections impossible, but STRATFOR sources have estimated that between 8 and 10 percent of drugs smuggled into the United States in the border region is seized by law enforcement.

Since mid-February, 661 kilograms (1,457 pounds) of methamphetamine have been reportedly seized by U.S. law enforcement between Laredo and Brownsville, while the reported total seized in the same area for the final three months of 2010 was 137 kilograms, indicating nearly a five-fold increase. With this area controlled mainly by two cartels not typically linked to methamphetamine distribution, STRATFOR believes that such a significant increase may indicate a change in cartel dynamics in the area. The Sinaloa cartel has a presence in the region in support of the Gulf cartel. We are inclined to believe that Sinaloa has benefited substantially from the association and has routed much larger quantities of their high-value commodity to the lower Rio Grande Valley. Whether this is the result of an agreement with the Gulf cartel or an overt takeover remains to be seen.

It should be noted that the Nuevo Laredo “plaza” has been a Zetas stronghold for several years (a plaza is a cartel’s territory that comprises parts the city itself, its adjacent highways and ports of entry), and with about 256 kilograms of methamphetamine seized since mid-February, we begin to wonder whether Sinaloa has co-opted some Zetas assets in the area — or if the Zetas have ramped up one or more superlabs to boost revenues for the area. The upswing also may be an indication that the Gulf and Zetas cartels are having difficulty getting cocaine from South America, and have had to diversify their product lines in order to keep cash flowing. In the case of Nuevo Laredo, there is also the possibility that the Zetas’ allies from the Pacific Coast, such as the Cartel Pacifico Sur (CPS), are now moving product through Zetas territory.

In any case, the increase in methamphetamine traffic is indisputable, and it indicates a change in cartel dynamics in the region that merits continued observation.

 
A mass grave was found April 21 in Durango, Durango state. While a great deal of attention has been focused on mass graves discovered in San Fernando attributed to the Zetas, we believe the Durango discovery is important, too, because it is a reminder that the Zetas are not the only Mexican drug-trafficking organization that engages in mass murder.

As of April 26, 58 decomposed bodies had been found in Durango. The state of decomposition indicates that the grave sites had been occupied for many months, longer than the mass graves in San Fernando. There are no reports attributing responsibility, but given the location in Durango state, we believe Sinaloa or the CPS are the most likely candidates.

It is unlikely a Zetas dumpsite. Their ruthlessness and violence notwithstanding, the Zetas are not the only cartel to dispose of bodies en masse. One method pioneered by the “El Teo” faction of the Arellano Felix Organization (aka the Tijuana cartel) involved the use of lye or acid to dissolve the bodies of their victims. In Mexico, people have been dying in the drug war in ever-increasing numbers, and the body count tabulated by the Mexican government and by Mexican and U.S. news agencies will never be accurate or complete. The mass graves found over the past few weeks are likely indications of things to come; as the violence in Mexico spreads, many of the dead will likely never be found.

April 18
Unidentified gunmen attacked two fuel stations in the municipality of Canatlan, Durango state. The attackers used small arms and grenades to damage the two stations, but no injuries were reported.
Unidentified attackers shot and injured the deputy director for the State Security Agency for Tejupilco, Mexico state, as he drove with a bodyguard in Temascaltepec, Mexico state.
Unidentified people left two decapitated bodies near a gas station in the Valle del Sur neighborhood of Durango, Durango state. The victims’ heads were found several blocks away.
Soldiers arrested two suspected cartel lookouts in Cadereyta, Nuevo Leon state. The suspects were detained after their car crashed into a utility pole while they were attempting to escape.

April 19
Soldiers in the Infonavit Rio Medio neighborhood of Veracruz, Veracruz state, killed 10 suspected cartel gunmen in a firefight. Ten other alleged gunmen were arrested.
Unidentified attackers threw two improvised explosive devices at the Tultitlan Polytechnic University in Tultitlan, Mexico state. One device exploded, injuring one man. The other device failed to detonate and was deactivated by police.
Unidentified gunmen opened fire on a police station in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, killing two people. The attackers fired more than 700 rounds at the building.

April 20
Police in the Los Olivos neighborhood of Leon, Guanajuato state, found the body of a man reportedly killed by the La Familia Michoacana cartel. The victim’s head had been wrapped in packing tape. A message was found near the body, but authorities did not disclose its contents.
Unidentified gunmen attacked a prison transport convoy in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, killing one guard and injuring four others. Three prisoners were freed in the attack.
Residents of the municipality of Tecamac, Mexico state, found the bodies of two unidentified men. The victims bore signs of torture but had apparently not been shot.
Police found the burned bodies of two men in the municipality of Pueblo Nuevo, Durango state.

April 21
Authorities freed 40 police officers arrested April 19 in Cadereyta, Nuevo Leon state, for alleged links to Los Zetas, Mexican media reported.
Unidentified gunmen attacked several car dealerships and other businesses in Miguel Aleman, Tamaulipas state, with grenades and small arms. No injuries were reported in the attacks, which were unofficially attributed to the Gulf cartel.
Unidentified gunmen in the Santa Teresa, Jalisco and Colinas del Saltito neighborhoods of Durango, Durango state, set three houses on fire. No injuries were reported in the attacks.
One soldier and one suspected cartel gunman were killed during a firefight in Miguel Aleman, Tamaulipas state. Eleven other people were arrested after the incident. According to a military news release, gunmen from Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel were involved in the firefight.

April 22
Unidentified attackers damaged a car dealership in southern Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, with two grenades. No injuries were reported.
Soldiers in the municipality of General Bravo, Nuevo Leon state, freed two people reportedly kidnapped April 9. One person was arrested in connection with the kidnappings. The raid occurred at a ranch on the highway to Reynosa, Tamaulipas state.

April 23
Police found the bodies of five women at separate locations in Acapulco, Guerrero state. The victims’ throats had been slit, and a message was found near one of the bodies.
The decapitated body of a man was found near a gas station in Durango, Durango state.
Unidentified gunmen traveling in two vehicles shot and killed five men in the Riberas del Sacramento neighborhood of Chihuahua, Chihuahua state.
Unidentified gunmen opened fire on three buses in separate incidents in the municipality of Hidalgo, Tamaulipas state. Three people were injured in the attacks.
Residents of the Chapultepec neighborhood of Mexico City discovered the dismembered body of a woman inside a cardboard box and two suitcases.

April 24
One police officer was reported injured and three people were arrested after a firefight between police and unidentified criminals in Ecuandureo, Michoacan state. Five police officers had previously been injured in an ambush by unidentified gunmen in Ecuandureo.
Unidentified gunmen opened fire on police stations in Hualahuises and Linares, Nuevo Leon state. No injuries were reported in either attack.




 
The way I see it.... the more people that don't like me, the less people I have to please
J
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

J
I really think Stratfor seems to be highly overestimating CPS/Beltran Leyva, those guys are finished.
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

Chivis
Administrator
I thought so also, but lately I gave it a second look, maybe not..time will tell!
 
The way I see it.... the more people that don't like me, the less people I have to please
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

El Profe
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

kylesam
@ El Profe

I was thinking the exact same thing jaja...
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

Chivis
Administrator
First of all I do respect all of you negative nellies..(jk)  but..
...I could have written exactly who would comment negatively...JAJAJA..predictable.
So i have a comment and a question.

Incorrect saying S is cut and paste using others stories. near 50% of the time they send me an alert and there is ZERO out there.  when they do use others  they give credit and if in a foreign language (remember they report globally) they translate into English.

They are the most quoted and used intelligence source used in media today, not only media but great social thinkers and scholars such as  George Grayson.  It cost 400 dollars a year to have access to the mountain of evidence charts, maps etc, I thought I would share with reader for free.  Typically what I post is either original written by me or a collage of many sources.  With this I thought I would try sharing some of the stratfor stuff.  It is not easy to post something, at least the way in which I do it.  Others may give a sentence or a link, but honestly others like me put a lot of effort, I enjoy doing it because judging by comments a many nice emails I received from the states, México and Europe people are supporting of my posts not always agree with me but are apreciative.  BTW most people do not comment, and I was surprised to receive the private emails of folks wanting to discuss privately or request additional information.
BUT, it surely is your prerogative to not agree with whatever you wish to here goes my question:
If you feel that way about S and it is clearly written in the subject line that it is a S report, why look?
Just to be critical? 
Really?
A gentle scolding..
Because there could be no other reason, and  that seems silly and self serving.  On the other hand if you tak a look at Js comment he was very specific about something he had issue with, I did also about the same thing.  That is productive.  Not just to generalize and be so wrong about all their information is gathered from other blogs.  WHAT?  Really? Sorry unless you subscribe you could not know how much 100% original reports they do.  why is it used by all media and blogs including BB.  BB has posted full length S stuff or often it is in the context being a source within an article written by another source, they use and give credit to Stratfor.   Maybe it is not right for BB but I really think so by the questions and comments, I always thought people just want the blood and gore and not mess with strategy or analysis, but I don't think that is true, many are interested in going deeper than pics or videos of decapitations                                                   As Always My Dos Centavos
 
The way I see it.... the more people that don't like me, the less people I have to please
777
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

777
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Sinaloa is too spread out to lose control. They only damage that can be done to them is going after their MONEY.  
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

mrchingasos
Banned User
This post was updated on .
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

Havana
In reply to this post by 777
Money angle is the key. But probably way harder than we'd think cause probably the days of laundering through easily traced places like Wacovia are over. You'd need insiders to tip off feds.,  then quick, seriously secretive, consistent highly intuitive intelligence etc.  And probably more man power, IT smarts and patience than is possible. Only on TV. And as on TV, it is easier to just go shoot the bad guys and hope they are the right ones even if they may be wearing stolen uniforms.I really Stratfor is a consistently viable intelligence source especially their year end cartel synopsis.  Not 100% but pretty good as far as I can see. But hell what do I know?  The whole situation is too disheartening to believe.
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

kylesam
In reply to this post by Chivis
If you feel that way about S and it is clearly written in the subject line that it is a S report, why look?
Just to be critical?

I actually have no problem with Stratfor I have posted some of their stuff in the past and I said in the past also  "Some of it(Stratfor reporting) is bullshit but for the most part they seem to get it right." I have found inconsistencies with their reporting and have stated what was wrong with their report but I also agree with el profe when he said "They just rewrite these stories we see here and other blogs and then add their OPINION on the situation. Anyone here reads these stories can do the same thing. Plain and simple. "
 
If you think about it Buela, anyone can really do what Strator is doing, hell even BB can make people pay for the information. All they do is get the information from news agencies and things like that and add their opinion. Its really not that hard. Just thinking of this idea I should get in contact with Buggs and could start our own Stratfor company but on Mexico....what do you think?? jk   jajajajajajajaja  

As Always My Dos Centavos
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

Bones
In reply to this post by Chivis
Thanks buela. I appreciate your posts. and I appreciate Stratfors info. It seems like they are usually spot on. And of course, its all speculation, so they arent going to be 100%. But it all seems like accurate guesses. remember they are using informants on the ground. They arent just making this stuff up. They dont need to. its not that difficult for them to find people willing to talk about this kind of stuff. Stratfor has plenty of high level people with high level connections. And since dont have an extra $400 to throw towards stratfor, i appreciate you putting it up there for us buela.
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

El Profe
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

El Profe
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

El Profe
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

DURANGO1
Heck those stratfors report are easy i can give you a better sounding one for free. Who would actually pay for something like that?
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

Chivis
Administrator
Allseeing 1 I mean durango...

Every reputable new source uses stratfor..BB uses them all the time a couple as recent as yesterday.  What's your issue?  Are you saying I am stupid?  Nice! I can not conceive of saying that to a person who posts. we work hard to share, you don't have to like what I post, but why be rude?  I really wonder about that.  SPecifics are fair game, challange content, fair game, start debate, fair game...but to simply ask an egregious question, is so wrong. For the record,  I would not pay you to write anything based on the grammar in your sole sentence.

for all posters on forum, don't let ungrateful, rudeness get to you, people appreciate the effort!

I am thankful that most readers are not like you, but I will be honest it is frustrating and upsetting, making me wonder if I should waste my time....but when discussing that with a reporter here is what he said just yesterday:


"Welcome to the blog world honey.....where criticism runs high and gratefulness runs little or next to nothing...but that's on the outside....
Just keep plucking away..For every comment like XXXXXXXXXXX you get, just know and remember there are MANY who have read your posts, taken the information to heart, are  grateful and did NOT comment....and THAT'S a fact...just look at your stats vs comments..Numbers don't lie..You are reaching alot of people, it's just that most people prefer to be enlightened and learn something, yet do not comment.."
 

attack content not people
If you do not like stratfor or Buela's post  here's a news flash...DON'T READ THEM..problem solved
 
The way I see it.... the more people that don't like me, the less people I have to please
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

queremos-paz
In reply to this post by DURANGO1
hey -durango-  look at the regular posts today and there is another from statfor.  the 2010 report  (from january) .  This one is new hot off the press.  Are you going to write a rude  comment to the borderland-beat reporter that posted it today? statfor is used all the time by Borderland and everywhere.
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

DURANGO1
In reply to this post by Chivis
Buela,

The attack was not on you it was more on Stratfor, Im not here to win a grammar competition or an essay writing contest with my translations. The only thing is i was being sarcastic in the sense that the stratfor report is like a horoscope encompassing everything for everyone. I for one do not read stratfor i just try and get news from an actual source i.e newspapers etc. Quite frankly if you look at my comments i feel insulted that i would be accused of being allseeingone. I am my own person and if you think i slammed your post then i cannot do anything about it. Buela of all people if you see the necessity of mex with your organization you would see stratfor is not a real source. They dont know of the necessity that these people have an assume that it will end.
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

DURANGO1
In reply to this post by queremos-paz
no i wont slam that post i cannot comment on it since i have no knowledge of that area lmao. I only commented on the durango posts since i have family there and get some sort of info. stratfor dice cuando el tecolote canta en la canada use ene llueve poco mucho o nada. Does stratfor have boots on the ground?
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Re: A CHANGE IN CARTEL DYNAMICS: Stratfor Security Update for MEXICO

Chivis
Administrator
In reply to this post by DURANGO1
sorry but it says "who would pay for that" and you know I do..that its personal i took it to be negative, becaue there was no other way to read it...like  "only an idiot or a fool would pay for this"

you may not intended it but it was just one sentence.  Stratfor has hundreds in the mexico folder and 90% is original and valuable. BB uses them extensively, as I stated in my note; they are not perfect.  and they are not.  but you must remember that often what is redundant or elementary to us is new to others, good journalism will write that way to include new readers to a subject or issue.  I think they do a great job and I would have used them eariler but had problems using a link or their entire article, I falied each time, but finally found a way.  I just posted interesting cartel areas of influence maps from 2008 to today which is excellent.  and just released yesterday, it was the first time it worked.  I just went over to see the post the commenter was talking about on the mainboard.  it is the annual report out since January.  which is fine because it is a recap of 2010, but see the map?  it looks fuzzy and is not interactive?  That is what would happen to me in my prior attemps, this time you have all the maps just the same as a 400 dollar subscriber.

They are an excellent source, not perfect but I absolutely will use them as I am sure BB and every other media source, but I will try and remember to put stratfor in teh subject line so you can skip that post
 
The way I see it.... the more people that don't like me, the less people I have to please
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